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IW Men's Final Preview: Nadal vs. Djokovic


Djokovic will attempt to defeat Federer and Nadal
back-to-back this weekend at Indian Wells.

World No. 1 Rafael Nadal will meet soon-to-be No. 2 Novak Djokovic for the Indian Wells title. We asked senior editor Peter Bodo four questions about the final:

1. Nadal will win if...
He keeps the pressure on, and makes Djokovic work for every point he gets. Nobody does that better than Nadal; it’s the not-so-spectacular secret to his mastery of Roger Federer. There just isn’t a player on the landscape today—including Djokovic—who is as consistently and persistently focused and “in the moment” as Nadal.

But the world No. 1 also needs to make his own life easier by taking care of his serve—no mean feat against a returner as gifted as Djokovic. One of the decisive factors in Nadal’s U.S. Open win over Djokovic last fall was his serve, and ability to feel that, as long as he served up to potential, newfound potential at that, he was relatively safe.

Beyond that, Nadal must be prepared to put on his track shoes and run down those penetrating groundstrokes and directional changes that are part and parcel of Djokovic’s game plan. Djokovic can hit through most of the ATP rank-and-file, including the upper echelon players. But Nadal has always been a bridge too far for that strategy.

It seems that every other word (make that phrase) out of Andy Roddick’s mouth these days is “stay the course,” and nobody—but nobody—stays the course better than Nadal, which is the main reason that Djokovic is a frustrating 0-5 against Nadal in finals, and has had so much trouble breaking down his game and will.

2. Djokovic will win if...

He can get to Nadal’s serve. That to me is the real battlefield here. If Djokovic can pressure and punish Nadal with his return, he may put Nadal under so much consistent, unrelenting pressure that Nadal will miss a forehand here, a backhand there, and find himself immersed in the simple chore of staying even.

When that happens, it all comes down to a winner here or an error there. And that’s likely to decide this match between the world No. 1 and the hottest player—by far—on the ATP tour this year. Djokovic is on a 19-match winning streak, dating back to the end of 2010. But the last time he played Nadal, at the ATP World Tour Finals, Djokovic lost in straight sets.

If you look at Djokovic’s record over the past year, it’s pretty clear that he needs to serve well in order to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Nadal and Federer at the top of the game. So you can probably get a good sense of who’s going to win this one by paying attention to the players’ respective service efficiency—not so much aces or service speed, but how each serve or return sets up the point. I’ll go out on a limb and predict that this match will be decided by that measure. Whichever man has the easier time holding will take it.

3. With the next hard-court major months away and the clay season on the horizon, how important is this result?

A win by Djokovic goes even further in establishing him as the legitimate No. 2, and introduces a new chase theme that has been lacking in recent European clay-court seasons. Nadal has owned the spring for half a decade now, but if he loses to Djokovic at Indian Wells, there will be a lot of attention paid to potential Nadal vs. Djokovic battles on red clay.

In the big picture, a win by Djokovic will also justify the idea that, over time, he’ll emerge as the best player. This would be his third consecutive hard-court title this year, and tennis is dominated more and more by the hard-court game. Nadal has made great strides on hard courts over the past few years, but I still get the sense that playing on cement isn’t second nature to him. If he loses to Djokovic in the California desert, his return to Europe will seem more like a retreat and attempt to regroup than a triumphant homecoming.

4. He won’t be ranked No. 1 even if he wins, but if Djokovic beats Nadal, is he the best player in the world right now?

Absolutely. How could you argue with his record? A win by Djokovic makes it 18 in a row for the year, and here’s a stat for you: Roger Federer has lost three tournament matches so far this season; all of those losses were inflicted by Djokovic.

The tricky thing is that as good as Djokovic may be, the pending switch to red clay means that in some ways all bets are off the minute the last ball is hit at Indian Wells. Nadal will roll into the clay season holding onto No. 1 and looking to maintain his supremacy. It’s hard to see Djokovic, who’s been prone to physical breakdowns in more physical matches, challenging Nadals' ownership of the major clay events, culminating with Roland Garros.

In other words, should Djokovic win at Indian Wells, he’ll be entitled to feel like the best player in the world. At least for a few weeks.

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VAMOS RAFA!!!!!!!! trzeba udowodnić kto rządzi w światowym tenisie.

Dlaczego Tomasz Tomaszewski komentuje ten mecz? Przecież On w ogóle nie zna się na tenisie, daliby Lorka to bym pooglądał w PSE A tak to zostaję jakiś stream z normalnymi komentatorami.

Rafa, mistrz wolejów, z przełamaniem.

Ha ha. No i break powrotny. Nieźle to wygląda jak na razie.

4*/3 Nadal.

3 breaki z rzędu, normalnie jak w WTA.

Set Djokovic 6-3.

Gramy decidera

Podwójne przełamanie. Zobaczymy, czy Rafa jeszcze powalczy, chociaż będzie ciężko.

E: Nic z tego. Rafa stanął, w zasadzie nic nie gra.

Mamy połowę marca, a Serb nie przegrał spotkania. Nieźle.

W Miami powinien przegrać, bo to już by było niezdrowe.

Samurray napisał:

W Miami powinien przegrać, bo to już by było niezdrowe.

Przegra jutro w pokazówce z Nadalem w...Bogocie. Panowie zaraz po finale mają samolot do Kolumbii.

Djoker *5-2 i 30-0. 2 piłki od tytułu.